By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
As we head into the final weekend of Big Ten regular-season games, we have a pretty good idea of what the postseason will look like.
Wins for Indiana and Ohio State would send both to the conference title game next week, with each likely receiving a bye in the Playoff.
Oregon can solidify its spot in the 12-team field with a win over Washington after defeating USC last week. An opening bye, while unlikely, does not seem impossible.
Rivalry weekend sets up with a full slate of nine conference games.
We take a look at the four West Coast schools, which face off against each other, plus four additional Big Ten games.
The three teams we don’t highlight this week pit Penn State visiting Rutgers, with the winner earning a bowl bid. The visiting Nittany Lions will get that bowl bid.
Northwestern visits Illinois for the Land of Lincoln Trophy, and the Illini will maintain the hat. Michigan State will host Maryland in a matchup between two teams desperate for a win. The visiting Terps should get it.
And with that, here is a look at the six Big Ten games we are highlighting.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Friday, November 28
9:00 AM PT, CBS
Line: Iowa -6
Over/Under: 38.5
This is one of those Black Friday traditions I really enjoy. The Hawkeyes and Huskers have been doing it the day after Thanksgiving in each of the 15 seasons since Nebraska joined the Big Ten.
For the Huskers, the tradition goes back even further, with this being the 36th consecutive season Nebraska has had a Black Friday game.
Of course, in their 15 Big XII seasons, Colorado was the opponent, with its Oklahoma rivalry closing out the last six seasons of the Big Eight.
The Heroes Trophy is on the line, along with a ton of bragging rights between the border states. The Heroes Game also features citizen heroes from each state, which is always a nice added feature to the rivalry.
On the field, the Hawkeyes enter this one having won nine of the last ten games in the series, including the last six played in Lincoln. Iowa is not only the hotter team in this series, but also the team in better shape this season.
Iowa has lost two of their last three, but the losses to Oregon and at USC were both games the Hawkeyes were in at the end, and were bad losses in any way, shape, or form. Make no mistake; this Iowa team is very solid.
The Huskers have a matching 7-4 mark on the season, same as Iowa, but Nebraska is struggling a bit at the moment, after losing to Penn State. They did not perform well under second-string QB TJ Lateef.
While starting signal caller is out, the Huskers need Emmett Johnson—currently fourth in the nation with 112.2 rushing yards per game—to step up.
Johnson is the first Big Ten player to have 1,200 rushing yards and 40 receptions in a season since 2017. The guy who did it back then was Saquon Barkley.
The Husker defense ranks second in the nation against the pass, but against Iowa, that figure is not really going to get you much.
The bigger deal is that Nebraska’s run defense is 94th in the nation and coming off an outing in which Penn State ran for 231 yards on them. If you told Iowa to ignore the passing game and just run it a ton, you’d hear no complaints from Kirk Ferentz.
This rivalry stays close, but the Hawkeyes will run all over the Huskers and leave Lincoln with a win yet again.
Against the spread: Nebraska
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Iowa
No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers at Purdue Boilermakers
Friday, November 28
4:30 PM PT, NBC
Line: Indiana -28.5
Over/Under: 54.5
This will be the 100th time these schools have battled for the Old Oaken Bucket and the 126th meeting all-time between the Hoosier State rivals.
Historically, this is one of the more lopsided rivalries in the nation, with the Boilermakers owning a win in nearly two-thirds of the matchups. But the current state of both programs could not be further from their historical tendencies.
Purdue enters this one having lost nine straight games and each of their last 17 Big Ten contests. Indiana is ranked second in the nation with a 16-1 conference mark over the last two seasons, and their current 11-game win streak is tied for the second longest in the nation.
These programs are heading in opposite directions at the moment.
Heisman frontrunner Fernando Mendoza leads the Hoosier offense. But as good as the QB has been this season, the Indiana ground attack propels the high-powered offense.
IU ranks 14th in the nation and third in the conference, with 218.6 rushing yards per game. Purdue is 92nd nationally against the run. The Hoosier O-Line should dominate.
To take this a step further, as good as the Indiana offense has been, the defense has been even better. Without that stellar “D,” Indiana would not be a legitimate title contender.
The Boilers have not gained 300 yards of total offense in any of their last three games. Not shockingly, that corresponds with the loss of RB Devin Mockobee, part of a ground attack that had posted a pair of 200+ yard games in the three games prior.
The Boilermakers will struggle to get anything going against the Hoosier defense in expected cold and windy nighttime conditions.
Purdue has shown improvement in Year One under Barry Odom, but remains far behind their rivals to the south. Indiana wins this one big, punching their ticket to the Big Ten Championship game.
Against the spread: Indiana
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Indiana
No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 15 Michigan Wolverines
Saturday, November 29
9:00 AM PT, FOX
Line: Ohio State -10
Over/Under: 44.5
These powerhouse rivals meet for the 121st time, and once again, a shot at a conference crown is on the line. An OSU win sends them to the Big Ten title game.
A loss would put the Wolverines in a strong position to return to Indianapolis, depending on the outcomes in West Lafayette and Seattle.
Needless to say, this is another big one. Ohio State looks like the dominant team this season. Their defense is elite, barely allowing 200 yards of offense per game.
OSU is limiting opponents to just 126.6 yards passing per game and has held four Big Ten opponents to under 100 yards through the air this season. The Buckeyes are a double-digit favorite for a reason . . . But we have seen this before.
Ryan Day is 53-5 in Big Ten conference games since becoming the head coach in Columbus. Four of those five losses have come at the hands of Michigan, and each has come in the last four meetings between the programs.
Michigan has been outstanding on the ground this season, rushing for 223.5 yards per game. UM has gotten it done on the ground against some stout run defenses as well.
Washington, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma—all among the Top 20 in run defense this season—fell victim to the Wolverines, who averaged 169.3 yards on the ground against them.
The only game Michigan was shut down on the ground in was the loss to USC.
Michigan will be patient with the run game and will not be afraid to get in a rock fight with OSU.
For Julian Sayin and the Buckeyes, this will be the biggest defensive challenge. The Wolverines will make it difficult for the Buckeyes to run the ball, and the QB will need to take some shots.
Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate will need to be at their best on the outside.
Sure, the Buckeye defense has been impressive, and the offense continues to get better, but looking at things deeper, the best win on the OSU schedule was a 14-7 win over Texas in the opener.
OSU avoided Oregon, Indiana, and USC on the conference slate. This one is set to feature the toughest opponent the Buckeyes have played all season.
Michigan has also gotten better as the season has progressed, and there is a reason this program is 40-6 in conference play over the last three-plus seasons.
If Michigan can get consistent and constant pressure on Sayin, the Wolverines will win this one again. But I am not sure they will be able to do that enough.
This one stays close, but in the end, OSU has too many offensive weapons and will end the Michigan win streak in the series.
Against the spread: Michigan
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Ohio State
No. 6 Oregon Ducks at Washington Huskies
Saturday, November 29
12:30 PM PT, CBS
Line: Oregon -6.5
Over/Under: 51.5
The Ducks have a shot to get into the Big Ten Championship game next week, but will need a win in Seattle and some help.
Oregon can punch its ticket to the CFB Playoff with a win this weekend, and based on the most recent rankings, the Ducks are in line for a solid seed and home game in the opener.
But before Oregon can even think about any of those possibilities, they need to concentrate on the 118th meeting with Washington.
The Ducks have not won in Seattle since 2021, and the Huskies have won three of the last 4 in the series.
This one will come down to who controls the line of scrimmage, especially when Oregon has the football. The Ducks run the ball better than any Big Ten team this season, churning out 228.6 yards on the ground per game, the eighth most potent attack in the nation.
Washington has the nation’s 18th-best run defense, allowing 103.4 per outing. The game could hinge on the battle at the line. While the UW run defense has been stout, the front line has not been able to create many sacks this season.
Oregon has allowed just 1.09 sacks per game this season, the 14th-fewest in the nation. Washington is only getting to the QB 1.73 times per game, ranking 96th in the nation.
The Ducks’ offensive line is banged up, which could open things up for Washington to create pressure. If Oregon gives Dante Moore enough time to operate, they will be able to create opportunities in the passing game.
The Ducks are also efficient at gap runs. If UW brings too much heat, UO will block down, and with a kickout from a guard, create a crease up the middle. Oregon is one of the best teams in the nation at this, but the line will need to be healthy and active.
Demond Williams’ reads will be the key for Washington on offense. The Huskies will look to create an extra gap on offense, a staple of any Jedd Fisch offense.
UW likes to employ a second TE or H-Back to create a three-man formation on the line on either side of the center. This will cause the defense to put an extra man in the box to defend.
In the run game, that creates an extra gap; in the passing game, it forces a player from coverage. This plays to the strength of Williams, Jonah Coleman, and Denzel Boston, the three biggest playmakers in the UW attack.
The Ducks’ ability to disguise their looks will dictate the success they have on that side of the ball. Look for Dan Lanning to bring some pressure from different places.
Since joining the Big Ten, Oregon is 9-0 in true road games with six of those wins coming by 20+ points. This one will not be a 20-point win, but the Ducks will secure their Playoff spot with a win over Washington.
Against the spread: Oregon
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Oregon
Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Saturday, November 29
12:30 PM PT, FS1
Line: Minnesota -1.5
Over/Under: 37.5
No FBS teams have battled more often than Wisconsin and Minnesota. This will be the 135th time the Badger and Gophers have met on the gridiron, and the series could not be any closer.
The schools are tied 63-63-8 in the series. Since the introduction of Paul Bunyan’s Axe in 1948, Wisconsin leads the series, 46-27-3.
This one is set to be just as close as the all-time series. Wisconsin is 2-1 in their last three games, with the lone loss coming at Indiana. The Badgers are starting to find something, and last week they ran for 209 yards in the win over Illinois.
Duplicating that success on the ground will not be easy this weekend. The Gophers have been good against the run, allowing just 124.7 per game.
They did get shredded on the ground last week by Northwestern as they allowed 220; they also allowed 253 in an earlier game against Purdue. The Gophers can’t afford a lapse in the ground defense on Saturday, or Darrion Dupre could make them pay.
The Gophers allowed the big day on the ground last week away from home. Minnesota has yet to win a game outside of Huntington Bank Stadium, but they have won all of them at home.
Luckily for the Gophers, this one is in Minneapolis. The Badger offense has struggled this season, but the young group is improving.
This one is sure to be a low scoring affair, but Minnesota has a little bit more on the offensive side of the ball. Drake Lindsey will create enough plays at QB to keep the Gophers perfect at home in 2025.
Against the spread: Minnesota
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Minnesota
UCLA Bruins at No. 17 USC Trojans
Saturday, November 29
4:30 PM PT, NBC
Line: USC -21.5
Over/Under: 59.5
USC and UCLA will battle for the Victory Bell in the 95th edition of the Battle for Los Angeles inside the Coliseum.
The salient question is the status of Nico Iamaleava, who is questionable with neck spasms. Obviously, the Bruin offense would be far better served with a healthy Iamaleava in the lineup, but it will really fall on the Bruins defense to step up in this one.
UCLA has been good against the pass, allowing just 191.1 through the air per game, ranking 29th in the nation. That unit will have their hands full. Jayden Maiava has put up great numbers and he has one of the best WRs in the nation at his disposal.
Makai Lemon’s 102.2 receiving yards per game rank as the third-most in the nation. the most of any power conference receiver this season, in which 74.4% of the wideout’s receptions have netted the Trojans either a first down or a touchdown.
The big problem for the UCLA defense has been slowing down the run. USC will certainly take whatever the Bruins give them, and if the passing opportunities are limited, the Trojans will run the ball on the Bruins.
Obviously if Iamaleava plays it will give the Bruins more firepower on offense, but UCLA really cannot afford to get in a shootout with the Trojans. The Bruins do not have enough on offense to match the Trojans score for score.
The Playoff may be out of reach for the Trojans, but all is certainly not lost. USC has a chance to reach 10 wins with a win this weekend and in the ensuing bowl game. Look for USC to make a statement with a convincing win over their cross-town rivals.
Against the spread: USC
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: USC
writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).
